Business Tight @ NAB09 & for the Year Forecasts SCRI - Beware of False Prophets!

As we all know by now, registration at NAB09 was down over 20% from 105,259 in 2008 to 83,842 in 2009. This of course includes multiple registrations and no-shows, since NAB reports registration and not actual attendance. According to the online thread on the Hollywood Post Alliance list, estimates put the actual attendance at around 50-55,000, including exhibitor staff. In addition, the past few years have seen major players like Avid vacillate with exhibiting and this year Apple & Quantel deciding not to exhibit. This may be a signal that NAB, once the powerhouse of the industry, is losing some if its luster as the broadcast & pro Video industry continues to morph with new technologies like IPTV and mobile video.

In addition, the other obvious reason that manufacturers are afraid to admit, is the economic downturn or dare we say it, the R-word. SCRI has been reporting in the definitive & statistically reliable end-user survey-based 2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Reports, that purchases of equipment by end-users is down in 09 but projected to pick up in 2010.

Specifically SCRI is reporting that equipment purchases by end-users among cable & TV broadcast stations as well as film & video production / post and corporate and institutional video (govt. medical, educational) sectors for the 25 Product Types tracked by SCRI, is down from $10.2 billion in 2008 to $9.9 billion in '09. However, SCRI forecasts for 2010 put the total market at around $10.5 billion!

Marketing managers responsible for marketing & product plans in this market space need to be looking at the real data, not the "sugarcoated" versions you see in so many "purchasing trends studies" affiliated with trade groups (like NAB) and or trade magazines with vested interests in telling manufacturers what they want to hear and not that they need to hear.

SCRI tells it like it is. The good, the bad and the ugly, and has been doing so, in the same definitive annually updated comprehensive industry survey since 1984. We do not make extravagant claims about global sales, based on estimates or talking with manufactures or scanty interviews but rather focus solely on the key specific vertical end-user markets in the USA with large sampling and reliable projections, not guestimates.

We see that one of the trade magazines is finally reporting from NAB09 on what the 2009 SCRI survey is showing. Broadcast Engineering this week reports that "Cost-effectiveness takes priority at NAB2009."

The article goes on to report that broadcast equipment vendors showed a willingness to help stations through their tough economic state by offering lower-cost products and that the terms “cost-effective” and “affordable” were used like never before.

BE reports also that manufacturers exhibiting at the show seemed willing to make deals (reducing their profit margins) that would have been unheard of two years ago. The article goes on to quote Tim Thorsteinson, president of Harris Broadcast Communications: “This is a market where any business is good business” . He said it's been a tough sales year across all world markets.

This is in line with what SCRI is reporting, based entirely on what thousands of end-users around the country have been telling us in the thousands of survey responses received and tabulated -- that 2009 is down significantly, but not in all product areas or all vertical markets. There are product and market niches that are more resilient to the economic downturn than others. And most importantly, that right now, end-users are optimistic about 2010.

If you want "Just the facts, ma'am", then you need to look at SCRI's 2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Reports.

In line with the tough times, SCRI is offering package discounts and a free copy of the Macro Industry Overview Report ($795 value) with every Product Report purchase.

2009 - 2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Product Reports
25 Product Reports are available for the following product types:
Video Camcorders;Video Cameras;Camera Mounting Systems;Character Generators;Clip / Still Stores;Composite/Component Encoders/Decoders Report;Digital Effects Processors;Graphics & Effects Software;Graphics & Effects Workstations;Master Control Switchers;Non-Linear Editing Systems;Production/Post Switchers;RAID Video Storage;Routing Switchers;Standards / Formats Convertors;TBC's / Frame Synchronizers;Telecine Equipment;Terminal Equipment - A/D's, DAs, Proc. Amps, etc.;Up/Down Converters;Video Compression Encoders/Decoders/Transcoders;Video Disk Recorders;Video Monitors;Video Servers;Video Test & Measurement;VTRs ;

2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Macro Industry Overview Report
The Broadcast / Pro Video Marketplace Macro Economic and Marketplace Overview is a 40 page report of analysis and information on the state-of-the-industry compiled from secondary online research sources including industry news sites, manufacturers sites, as well as SCRI's own weekly online News Briefs and Insider Reports.

Table of Contents include:Executive Summary ;Overall Economic and Market Macro Overview ;The Big Picture ;The Economy… A Primer ;What Came First? The Chicken or The Egg? ;Can Politicians Tred Water? ;Hedging a Bet that Went South ;No Bull Here…Just a Big Ugly Bear ;Keno Anyone? ;How about a Rubber Chicken? ;I Should have had a V-8 ;What Has Happened Now ;Rock, Paper, Scissors… ;World Economists Saw It Coming ;Some Optimism Reigns Again ;Do We Know When to Say When? ;How the Professional/Cable/Production Market is Doing ;The Darwinian Factor ;Who’s on Top ;Why Do I Have to Pay More for HD? ;IPTV Makes a Statement ;Mobile a’ Twitter With Possibility… ;Does Popcorn Come With That? ;Is it Digital Yet? ;

What This Means to Marketers ;What Marketers are Doing ;Avid Offloads Two Units -- Softimage & Pinnacle PCTV ;Arri to Acquire Dalsa Digital Cinema Assets ;Utah Scientific Acquires Sandar ;Front Porch Digital Acquires SAMMA Systems ;Harmonic Reports Strong Q3 ;Pixelworks Reports Mixed Q3 ;Omneon Inc.has withdrawn registration for a $115 million IPO ;Pro-Bel and Snell & Wilcox Announce Merger ;Adobe Expects to Achieve Q1 Profit and Earnings Targets Despite Revenue Shortfal ;Adobe Achieves 13 Percent Annual Growth ;Adobe Reports Record Annual Revenue in Fiscal Year 2008 ;Miranda reports 2008 fourth quarter and year-end results ;Miranda Completes Acquisition Of Nvision ;Miranda reports 2008 fourth quarter and year-end results ;Microsoft and NBCU will Partner for 2010 Olympics ;General Electric and Intel Partnering on Remote Medical Monitors ;Snell & Wilcox Receives Two Broadcast Engineering Awards ;Cisco Systems Buys Maker of Flip Video for $590M ;SeaChange Flashes Server Growth ;

What is Happening in the Professional Television/Video Market ;Charter Files for Prearranged Bankruptcy Protection ;Hearst Offers to Buy Rest of TV Group ;Comcast Funds Wideband and Digital TV ;DirecTV Switches Ad Agencies ;BSkyB Will Address Stereo 3D ;WTSP-TV Uses Skype to Broadcast a Live Shot ;Griffin Communications to Restructure ;Univision Retransmission Impasse Could Threaten Carriage ;CBS reports Q3 loss ;Sinclair Updates Q4 Outlook ;Verizon up 30%+ ;Sinclair Updates Q4 Outlook ;Verizon up 30%+ ;

2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Micro Quantitative Product Data Report
Historical, Projected and Forecast Sales, Units & Dollars, Total and by vertical end-user market; from 2002 - 2010 -- http://scri.com/sc_bpvm_2009micro.shtmlFor more information on the report and package discounts currently available, contact info@scri.com for details.

2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Market & Product Reports @ NAB

2009 - 2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Product Reports
(25 Separate Product Reports -- click on arrow)

2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Macro Industry Overview Report

2009-2010 Broadcast/Pro Video Micro Quantitative Product Data Report

NAB09 Exhibitor Listings & News Releases